A Narrow Path to Affordability
Despite a national narrative suggesting that rents are finally cooling, the reality for millions of low-income Americans remains stark. While asking rents have edged downward for more than two years, they are still dramatically higher than pre-pandemic levels. For workers earning minimum wage, that gap between income and housing costs continues to define daily life.
Recent data from Realtor.com delivers a sobering conclusion: only five of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas currently offer rental housing that is affordable for minimum wage workers, assuming a standard 40-hour workweek and responsible budgeting. This is not just a housing statistic—it’s a measure of economic mobility, workforce stability, and long-term urban health.
Why Minimum Wage Matters More Than Ever
The federal minimum wage has remained frozen at $7.25 per hour since 2009, even as housing, transportation, food, and healthcare costs have surged. According to Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner, the single biggest factor determining rental affordability today is whether a metro is located in a state or city with a local minimum wage meaningfully higher than the federal floor.
Even then, higher wages alone are not enough. In many high-cost markets—particularly along the coasts—local minimum wages have risen, but rents have risen faster. The result is a growing number of full-time workers who are still priced out of the median rental unit.
This disconnect highlights a structural imbalance: wage policy and housing supply are no longer moving in sync.
The Five Metros That Still Work
Those metros are:
-
Buffalo, NY
-
Rochester, NY
-
St. Louis, MO
-
Phoenix, AZ
-
Kansas City, MO
What unites these markets is not just wage policy, but relatively moderate rent levels compared to national norms.
Buffalo leads the list. With a minimum wage of $15.50 per hour, two earners need to work only 30 hours per week to afford a typical rental priced at $1,176 per month—more than $500 below the national median. This positions Buffalo as a rare example of alignment between wages and housing costs.
Rochester follows closely, requiring a 35-hour workweek to afford a $1,339 rental at the same wage level. Both cities underscore a broader trend: upstate New York continues to outperform much of the country on affordability, even as downstate markets struggle.
Midwest Stability and Sunbelt Contrast
In St. Louis, a household earning $13.75 per hour must work 38 hours weekly to afford a $1,305 rental. Kansas City, with the same minimum wage, requires a full 40-hour week to cover a $1,387 unit, placing it right at the threshold of affordability.
Phoenix stands out geographically. With a minimum wage of $14.70—roughly double the federal minimum—workers must log 39 hours per week to afford a $1,445 rental. While Phoenix has seen strong population growth and rising housing demand, it remains one of the few large Sunbelt metros where minimum wage earners still have viable options.
According to Berner, these metros function better because renters can afford a larger share of available units, which creates healthy competition among landlords and supports better property maintenance and tenant choice.
Two More Metros on the Brink
There is cautious optimism heading into 2026. Planned minimum wage increases in Michigan and Florida are expected to push Detroit and Jacksonville into the affordability column.
In Detroit, a wage increase from $10.56 to $13.73 would reduce the required workweek from over 50 hours to 39 hours to afford a $1,327 rental. In Jacksonville, a bump to $15 per hour would allow renters to afford a $1,457 unit with 39 hours of work, six fewer than today.
However, experts warn that wage increases alone may not deliver lasting relief.
Skepticism on the Ground
Dr. David Jaffee, professor of sociology at the University of North Florida and founder of the Jax Tenants Union, cautions that Jacksonville’s affordability crisis runs deeper than wages. He points to the financialization of rental housing and the rise of corporate landlords as key drivers of sustained rent pressure.
According to Jaffee, even with higher wages, tenants continue to face lease renewals with rent increases exceeding $100 per month, often with little recourse. Rising costs for essentials like food and insurance further erode any gains from wage hikes.
His assessment is blunt: for many working-class households, rents may stabilize—but at already inflated levels.
The Bigger Picture: A System Under Strain
For 43 of the 50 largest U.S. metros, rental housing remains unaffordable for two minimum-wage earners. In Philadelphia, households would need to work 96 hours per week to afford the median rent. In San Jose, the nation’s most expensive rental market, workers earning $16.90 per hour would need 80 hours weekly to cover a $3,363 apartment.
These figures underscore a fundamental issue: the U.S. rental housing system is failing to serve its workforce.
Final Perspective
At Duke Properties, we view housing affordability as both a market signal and a social imperative. When only five major metros can support minimum wage renters without overtime, it’s not just a housing problem—it’s an economic warning.
Until wages, housing supply, and policy align more effectively, affordability will remain the exception, not the rule. The metros that succeed will be those that recognize housing not as a luxury asset alone, but as essential infrastructure for a functioning economy.